Rejoinder to James Hamilton
نویسندگان
چکیده
Hamilton begins his criticism by stating that there is a philosophical distinction between the two methods for dating cycles and concludes that the method we use “leaves vague and intuitive exactly what this algorithm is intended to measure”. Nothing is further from the truth. Ask yourself, what is a recession? Common usage suggests that it is a decline in the level of economic activity that lasts for some time. The fact that this is the most widely accepted definition of a recession can be seen from all the media discussion in the US in the early part of 2001. Had GDP declined in the March quarter was the burning question? Those who thought it had thought the US might be in recession. But caution needed to be applied since it is common sense that the decline has to last for some period of time before we would produce the R word. US history shows that there have been quite a few periods in which GDP declined for a single quarter but in the following quarter has bounced back. For this reason it has become standard to describe a recession as a decline in GDP that lasts for more than two quarters, as can be seen from the definition often quoted in the press that two quarters of negative growth indicate a recession. Finding periods in which quarterly GDP declined for two periods is exactly what our approach does. What is vague about this?
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Skeem for their thoughtful comments and suggestions.
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